Introduction
The geopolitical rivalries in the Middle East have always been a dynamic and volatile scene; a theater where regional and extra-regional actors constantly seek to maximize their power and influence. In this context, the relationship between Turkey and Israel – once hailed as a model of strategic cooperation in the region – has transformed in recent years into one of the most contentious axes of conflict in the Middle East. Turkey was the first country in the Muslim world to recognize Israel in 1949, and throughout the 1990s, the two entities were considered “regional strategic allies.” However, the rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist-leaning government in Turkey and the right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel plunged these relations into unprecedented crises and tensions.
Today, the disputes between Turkey and Israel extend from Jerusalem and Palestine to Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, becoming one of the region’s most significant geopolitical conflicts. Turkey, with its regional ambitions, is striving to demonstrate to the United States and the international community that it can assume many roles in the region and that Israel is not the sole primary actor in the Middle East. On the other hand, Israel, relying on its military power and unwavering American support, seeks to maintain its strategic superiority and prevent the emergence of a powerful rival on its borders.
This geopolitical confrontation, unfolding across various arenas – from Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean to the Red Sea and relations with the West – has created an unprecedented opportunity for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran, which has long been a target of Israel’s hostile policies and has faced direct Israeli military strikes on its soil in recent years, can leverage this geopolitical rift intelligently to reduce pressure and shift the regional balance of power in its favor. Rapprochement with Turkey and its allies, particularly Pakistan, could form a new axis of regional cooperation that, while countering Israeli ambitions, would establish a new regional order based on a balance of power.
- The Geopolitical Grounds of the Turkey-Israel Dispute
- Rivalry in Syria: The Epicenter of Confrontation
In the post-Assad era, Syria has become the most crucial arena for the confrontation between Turkey and Israel. Since 2024, Israel has expanded its zones of influence within Syria, pushing Turkey and Israel to the brink of direct confrontation. Israel has repeatedly declared its “red lines” and has responded with military force to any Turkish attempt to cross these lines.
The most recent example of this confrontation was the Israeli airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in the Idlib governorate in northwestern Syria in mid-August 2026. Israel declared that these strikes were carried out to prevent a potential Turkish military deployment at this base; deployments which, according to Israel, pose a significant threat to its security. Ankara, however, has vehemently denied any plans for a military deployment at this facility. Political analysts believe that Israel’s concern over Turkey’s growing role in Syria is the primary driver of recent tensions. Turkey maintains an advisory and training presence in Syria, and according to analysts, Ankara has no territorial ambitions in the country and seeks to support a unified Syrian state structure. Nevertheless, Israel is determined to prevent Turkey’s presence in Syria from evolving from a tolerable advisory role into a permanent, influential military deployment that could threaten Israeli air superiority over Syrian territory. A former Mossad official, while deeming a direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel unlikely, described Erdogan’s long-term strategy of regional expansionism as a serious threat to Israeli interests. Following the Syrian strikes, Israel warned Turkey that its military development plans in Syria had crossed a “red line.” It is noteworthy that these tensions are escalating even though both countries are members of US-led coalitions, and Washington is also concerned about a conflict between its two allies. Nevertheless, confident in American support, Israel has adopted an aggressive approach towards Turkey’s role in Syria.
- The Eastern Mediterranean: The Energy and Maritime Border Battlefield
The Eastern Mediterranean has become another significant arena for Turkey-Israel competition. The discovery of vast natural gas reserves in the region has intensified the rivalry over maritime boundary demarcations and extraction rights. By signing a maritime delimitation agreement with Libya’s Government of National Accord in 2019, Turkey effectively incorporated vast areas of the Eastern Mediterranean into its sphere of influence; a move that drew sharp reactions from Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt. Israel, along with Greece and Cyprus, has formed a coalition in the Eastern Mediterranean and, through agreements such as the EastMed pipeline project, seeks to exclude Turkey from the region’s energy equations. Israeli media have explicitly stated that they consider Turkey a much greater and more dangerous threat to Israel than Iran. The rivalry between Turkey and Israel has now impacted virtually all regional dossiers, including the Eastern Mediterranean. Tensions in this region have also spilled into its waters. According to reports, Turkish vessels have approached Israeli forces on several occasions, although these incidents have ended without direct clashes. Turkey is attempting to employ pragmatic strategies to avoid falling into the “Israeli trap,” which could diminish its regional influence. This rivalry indicates that the Eastern Mediterranean has become an overlooked front in the regional realignment, with the interests of the two countries increasingly coming into conflict in this area.
- Jerusalem and Palestine: The Historical Roots of Tension
The issue of Palestine, and particularly Jerusalem, has always been a central axis of the Turkey-Israel dispute. Statements by Mustafa Çiftçi, the Interior Minister of Erdogan’s government, who expressed hope that Turkey would one day take control of Jerusalem just as it did in Aleppo and Karabakh, drew a sharp reaction from Israel. In response, the Israeli Defense Minister stated: “Jerusalem is not Constantinople, and the Ottoman Empire, which Erdogan dreams of reviving, collapsed years ago.” Relying on the 500-year history of the Ottoman Empire in Jerusalem, Turkey seeks to play a more active role in supporting the Palestinians. To contain this situation, the Netanyahu government has adopted a policy of harshly confronting Turkish influence among Palestinians in East Jerusalem, swiftly shutting down financial, cultural, and religious institutions affiliated with Ankara in that sector. Notably, Erdogan recently made unprecedented remarks, declaring that “Israel’s attacks on Syria and Lebanon have reached a level that threatens Turkey’s security as well,” and emphasized that “Turkey’s security does not start from Hatay (its borders), but from Aleppo, Damascus, and Beirut.” Netanyahu responded by calling Erdogan an “anti-Semitic dictator” who supports Hamas. This level of verbal hostility between the leaders of the two countries underscores the depth of the rift and the complete lack of mutual trust.
- The Regional Role Rivalry and Showcasing Power to the US
In recent years, Turkey has attempted to show the United States that it can assume many roles in its region and that Israel is not the sole primary actor in the Middle East. With active involvement in Syria, Libya, Karabakh, and recently mediating between Russia and Ukraine, Ankara seeks to redefine itself as an independent and influential regional power. Israel, however, views these Turkish ambitions as a direct threat to its own position. An Israeli newspaper, citing Turkey’s progress in the defense industry and military power, described it as a much greater and more dangerous threat to Israel than Iran. This assessment indicates that Israel views Turkey not merely as a regional rival, but as a strategic threat to its national security. On its part, Turkey seeks the privileges of a Western alliance while increasingly treating Israel as a strategic adversary. By hosting Hamas leaders and repeatedly criticizing Israeli policies, Ankara is attempting to solidify its position as the voice of the Islamic world in opposing Israel.
- Iran’s Strategic Opportunities Amidst Turkey-Israel Disputes
- Reducing Geopolitical Pressure on Iran through Rapprochement with Turkey
The deep-seated disputes between Turkey and Israel have provided Iran with an unparalleled opportunity to reduce the geopolitical pressure exerted by Israel by moving closer to Ankara. In recent years, Israel, through direct strikes on Iranian soil, as well as attacks on Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza, has sought to reshape the Middle Eastern regional order in its favor. The rapprochement between Iran and Turkey has noticeably increased in recent months. Senior defense officials from both countries have held multiple discussions regarding regional security developments and ways to expand bilateral defense and security cooperation. The leaders of the two nations have also emphasized the importance of continued diplomacy, regional peace, and the expansion of bilateral cooperation. By getting closer to Turkey, Iran can leverage Turkey’s capabilities as a NATO member and a key regional player to moderate Israeli pressure. Turkey, on the other hand, due to its tensions with Israel, is seeking new allies in the region, and Iran can fulfill this role.
- The Mecca Defense Pact: A New Axis of Regional Balance
The signing of the Joint Defense Pact of Mecca on August 7, 2026, between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, marks a fundamental shift in the region’s security equations. According to Turkish officials, this pact is technically similar to NATO’s Article 5 regarding mutual defense, providing a framework for advanced military and security cooperation among the three nations. Under this agreement, an armed attack against any of the three countries is considered an attack against all three. Crucially, Iran has reportedly received an invitation to join this defense pact, and “this matter is under review.” If Iran joins this pact, the regional balance of power will fundamentally shift in favor of Iran and its allies. Pakistan, a nuclear power itself, along with Turkey, which possesses the largest NATO army after the US, and Saudi Arabia as an economic and religious power, form a coalition capable of standing against Israeli ambitions. A senior international affairs analyst believes that the signing of this defense agreement in Mecca has sparked a series of interpretations, and the pact is best understood as an ambitious strategic triangle with immense potential, albeit with incomplete strategic convergence. What is certain is that this pact could become a deterrent factor against Israeli actions.
- Iran’s Proposal for a Joint Islamic Security Mechanism
In August 2026, Iran proposed the formation of a “joint Islamic security mechanism” that would include Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, effectively excluding foreign powers from the region. In a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart, Iran’s Acting Defense Minister emphasized this proposal, arguing that the recent war demonstrated that regional security must be the responsibility of the region’s own countries, not external powers. He also warned about Israel’s plans to create “security zones” in Syria and Lebanon. This Iranian proposal, which includes Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, is essentially a call for the formation of a new regional order based on cooperation among Islamic nations and the exclusion of foreign players from regional security equations. Turkey’s Defense Minister, in response, expressed his country’s readiness to expand cooperation with Tehran in the fight against terrorism and border security, emphasizing that regional rapprochement is the only way to achieve lasting peace. These statements indicate that Ankara also views cooperation with Iran as part of its overall strategy to create a balance against Israel.
- Iran-Turkey Cooperation Regarding Syria
Syria, as the main arena of Turkey-Israel competition, can also transform into a field of Iran-Turkey cooperation. Ankara’s perception is that after a significant Iranian withdrawal from Syria, the country could become an arena for Turkey’s unchallenged geopolitical and geostrategic dominance. However, Israel, through its active presence in Syria and the creation of zones of influence, has challenged this plan. Iran, by cooperating with Turkey in Syria, can protect its interests in the country while emerging as a strategic partner against Israel. Iran-Turkey cooperation in Syria could include coordination regarding Syria’s future political structure, the fight against terrorist groups, and countering Israeli influence. Iranian and Turkish officials have emphasized the necessity of continuing political consultations and expanding bilateral cooperation in various fields.
- Pakistan as a Strategic Ally
As a nuclear power and a key member of the Mecca Defense Pact, Pakistan can play a central role in establishing a new regional balance. Iran-Pakistan relations are highly stable, and Tehran trusts Islamabad to mediate in its negotiations with the United States. Moreover, both Iran and Pakistan are strategic partners of China, which itself could help mediate any potential disagreements. Iran’s proximity to the Mecca pact through Turkey could form a powerful coalition that includes the region’s largest army (Turkey), a nuclear power (Pakistan), and a regional power with advanced missile and drone capabilities (Iran). This coalition could create effective deterrence against Israeli ambitions and establish a new regional order based on a balance of power.
- Leveraging the Political Atmosphere in the US
Analysts believe that the upcoming elections in the United States (November 2026) and Israel (October 2026) could create new opportunities for Iran. Both sides are aware that they cannot take actions that would be perceived negatively, as this would reduce their chances of electoral victory. In this sensitive political climate, Iran can strengthen its position in potential negotiations with the US by enhancing cooperation with Turkey and other regional countries. Furthermore, the United States, which is concerned about a conflict between its two allies, Turkey and Israel, might increase pressure on Israel to prevent an escalation of tensions – a development that could ultimately benefit Iran.
Conclusion
The escalating geopolitical rivalry between Turkey and Israel, which spans from Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean to Jerusalem and international diplomatic arenas, presents a strategic and unparalleled opportunity for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Israel, which in recent years has sought to alter the regional order in its favor and establish hegemony in the Middle East through strikes on Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and even Iranian territory, now faces a serious challenge from Turkey – a challenge that could fundamentally alter Tel Aviv’s strategic calculations. With its regional ambitions, Turkey is trying to show the United States and the international community that Israel is not the sole key player in the region and that Ankara too can play crucial roles in regional equations. This confrontation, unfolding across various fronts, provides a golden opportunity for Iran to intelligently move closer to Turkey and its allies, especially Pakistan, to reduce the geopolitical pressure on itself and shift the regional balance of power in its favor. Signs of this rapprochement have been clearly observable in recent months: frequent contacts between senior defense officials of the two countries, the emphasis by Iranian and Turkish leaders on expanding bilateral cooperation, Iran’s proposal for a joint Islamic security mechanism with Turkish participation, and particularly Iran’s potential invitation to join the Mecca Defense Pact signed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. If Iran joins this pact, a coalition will form that could fundamentally alter the regional balance of power and create effective deterrence against Israeli ambitions. However, the success of this strategy requires vigilance, realism, and proactive diplomacy on Iran’s part. Rapprochement with Turkey must be based on mutual interests and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations. Iran must leverage Turkey’s capabilities as a NATO member and a key regional player to moderate Israeli pressure, while keeping its own national interests as the top priority. Ultimately, what is certain is that the Middle East is on the verge of a fundamental transformation. The Turkey-Israel rivalry, coupled with the formation of new regional coalitions, could lead to a new order in the region in which Iran, by intelligently capitalizing on emerging opportunities, consolidates its position as an effective and influential actor in regional equations. Israel, relying on force and creating instability in its pursuit of a new regional order, may find itself countered by a coalition of regional countries led by Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan – an alternative model based on cooperation, collective security, and respect for state sovereignty. The future of the Middle East hinges on the choice between these two paths, and Iran, with a proper understanding of geopolitical developments, can play a decisive role in shaping that future.
*The views and opinions expressed in articles published in this section are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions or views of PAIAB.